THE recent announcement by the International Monetary Fund that they expect Britain to avoid economic recession this year will come as a relief to us all, especially given that Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has already entered a recession.

Whilst this is welcome news, we still face a number of underlying challenges due to supply shortages caused by the Russian war in Ukraine, which continues to cast a long shadow over the world economy.

Food prices continue to remain high due to a series of compounding factors, starting with the fact Ukraine normally produces almost 20 per cent of the world’s supply of wheat, 90 per cent of which is normally exported via the Black Sea trade route. Obviously, significantly less wheat has been planted or has been unable to be harvested, and the Black Sea trade route is significantly less useable due to the Russian occupation of many Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

In addition, Russia and Belarus would normally export a significant amount of chemical fertiliser to the west, the absence of which has significantly driven up prices of the fertiliser here, and also increased prices of fresh agricultural produce.

My own father, still working as a farmer at 82, has spoken to me about how nitrogen fertiliser has more than doubled in cost since the Russian war began, with hard pressed farmers having to pass that cost on to consumers.

Higher energy prices also feed into higher food prices, as agricultural processing and refrigeration costs go up for arable and dairy farmers. The French now look extremely far-sighted, ensuring 90 per cent of their electricity comes from nuclear power by heavy investment in nuclear decades ago, and we must now engage in a similar programme of investment in new nuclear, so we are never again vulnerable to a tyrant turning off the taps of oil and gas.

This makes our recent free trade deals with major food producing nations such as Australia and New Zealand more important than ever. Tariff-free and reliable food imports from our Commonwealth friends, so long denied to us whilst locked in the EU, will play a significant role in reducing food prices long after this Russian war ends, and we must hope it ends quickly.

PM Rishi Sunak is currently in the USA where it has just been announced he has secured £14bn of new US investment in the UK economy. It is to be hoped he also makes progress on signing a comprehensive trade deal with America to further insulate Great Britain from international economic turmoil. It is imperative that Britain continues to strengthen our access to international markets to ensure we avoid the economic dependence on Russia our European colleagues are now facing the consequences of.